In a stunning turn of events, the 2024 election proved that many pundits and pollsters couldn’t have been more off the mark. Former President Donald Trump didn’t just reclaim the White House—he stormed in with both the Electoral College and the popular vote in his pocket.
For months, liberals and left-leaning analysts assured everyone that Trump’s comeback was a long shot, especially given his narrow losses in 2020. But with each vote counted, it became clear that Trump had managed to redraw the political map, potentially for generations to come.
Perhaps the biggest shock of all? Kamala Harris, the Democrats’ hopeful contender, severely underperformed compared to her predecessor, Joe Biden. Across the board, she saw lower numbers—even in blue-leaning counties Biden had taken for granted in 2020.
This election has left many liberal strategists scratching their heads. Not only did Harris fail to deliver Biden-level support, but Trump also made huge inroads with key demographics. And with that, we dive into the key shifts that may shape American politics for decades.
Latino voters were less likely to support Vice President Kamala Harris than they were President Joe Biden in 2020, a critical shift that helped put former President Donald Trump on the path to victory…
The other underlying problem is that Democrats just broadly have a problem with working-class voters,” said Mike Madrid, a longtime Republican operative, speaking to the Washington Examiner in mid-September. “Latinos have become the largest part of the working class nationally, so they’re gonna have problems with Latinos.” [Source: Washington Examiner]
For years, Democrats have counted on Latino voters as a solid bloc. But the 2024 results tell a different story. While more than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, that number fell notably from the six in ten who backed Biden.
This decline may seem modest, but it’s a clear sign that Latino voters, a crucial part of Biden’s coalition, are beginning to look elsewhere.
Trump didn’t just make incremental gains—he surged with Latino men. According to NBC News, he won 54% of their votes. In contrast, Latino men had favored Biden by a wide margin in 2020. With Harris, the gap narrowed significantly, with only 44% of Latino men supporting her.
This ten-point shift reflects a broader pattern of working-class Latino men who resonate with Trump’s economic message. His calls to lower inflation, create job opportunities, and clamp down on illegal immigration found a responsive audience, as many in this demographic prioritize policies they believe will impact their wallets.
Even among Latino women—a demographic where Democrats have traditionally held a stronghold—Harris found it hard to maintain Biden’s 2020 numbers. While she still held a lead, her 25-point advantage lagged behind Biden’s 39-point margin.
Trump’s appeal to Latino families and working-class values is evidently resonating, with many feeling that conservative economic policies offer a more direct path to stability and growth.
Other Republicans are also feeling the shift. Senator Ted Cruz, for instance, made impressive gains with Latino voters in Texas, beating out Harris by six points. In 2018, Cruz lost the Latino vote by a whopping 29 points.
Now, that gap has closed, suggesting a deepening conservative appeal among Latino communities that could extend beyond Trump.
So what’s driving this change? According to Mike Madrid, a Republican operative, it boils down to the Democrats’ trouble with working-class voters. Latinos now make up the largest segment of the working class nationwide.
Their needs often align with policies focused on economic empowerment, job creation, and reducing the cost of living. For many Latinos, this translates into support for conservative candidates who they see as more in tune with their financial concerns and daily realities.
Trump’s consistent focus on border security also strikes a chord with Latino voters concerned about jobs and community resources. He argues that open-border policies strain taxpayer-funded services and make it harder for legal residents to find employment.
This message, combined with his economic policies, has resonated deeply within Latino communities across the country, further eroding the Democrats’ traditional base.
What does this mean going forward? For one, Democrats can no longer take Latino voters for granted. The consistent movement of Latino men and women toward conservative candidates signals a long-term realignment.
It’s no longer enough to assume that Latino voters will back progressive policies by default. If Republicans continue to champion economic policies that favor the working class, they may well secure a new loyal voting bloc for years to come.
The 2024 election will likely go down as the moment that revealed a shifting landscape, where conservative candidates find traction across demographics that were once solidly blue.
With Trump’s message of economic opportunity and strong borders, many Latino voters are embracing a vision that prioritizes family stability and financial security.
Author: Kit Fargo
