As President Joe Biden’s approval ratings go lower, Senate and House Democrats are leaving the ship, leaving behind a stronger chance that Republicans take back the U.S. House and might even take back the U.S. Senate. The latest news: on Wednesday, Congresswoman Jackie Speier (D-CA) announced she won’t be running for reelection in 2022. With the precarious lead the Democrats have in the U.S. House, every seat matters, although Speier’s very Democratic district will possible send another Democrat in her place.
This week, the president pro tempore of the U.S. Senate, Vermont DNC Senator Patrick Leahy, who is the longest-serving current senator, announced he won’t seek reelection. Joe Biden won Vermont by 35 points in the previous election; no prominent GOP member from Vermont has started a 2022 bid for the U.S. Senate as yet.
The Washington Post said this Friday, “Eight Dems have chosen not to go for reelection back in 2022, with more possibly on the way.” The Post said:
“Congressmembers … don’t normally leave their jobs unless they are forced out by voters, or feel like they will soon have permanent minority status. Like a Waffle House closing before a hurricane, the Retiree Index can be a hint for Congress watchers — along with ominous surveys and a surprise loss in what was meant to be a safe election (in this circumstance, Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s loss in the Virginia governor’s race) — that they are about to get destroyed. Some members could be getting out before their circumstances go from bad to worse.”
After the Virginia and New Jersey elections this month in which the Republican did very well, Nathaniel Rakich from fivethirtyeight.com said:
“If I were the DNC Party, I would be feeling much less comforted by this number after Tuesday. While polls are normally in the right area, they are still subject to some error, as Democrats themselves found out in 2020, when the generic-ballot surveys overestimated their win margin by around 4.2 points. Plus, there was good reason to believe that generic-ballot polls are overestimating Dems: Almost all so far have polled registered voters instead of likely voters, who usually are the more Republican-leaning group, especially in the midterms when the president is a Democrat.”
Author: Scott Dowdy